RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC
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RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 9, No. 10, Part II, 18 January 2005
A daily report of developments in Eastern and Southeastern Europe,
Russia, the Caucasus, Central Asia, Southwestern Asia, and the Middle
East prepared by the staff of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
This is Part II, a compilation of news concerning Eastern and
and Central Asia, and Part III, which covers Southwestern Asia and
the
documents.
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Headlines, Part II
* UKRAINIAN SUPREME COURT MULLS LOSING PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE'S
ELECTION COMPLAINT
* CROATIAN PRESIDENT REELECTED IN LANDSLIDE VOTE
* KOSOVA'S UN ADMINISTRATOR LEAVES BELGRADE EMPTY-HANDED
END NOTE: THREE CHALLENGES FOR THE CRIMEAN TATARS
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EASTERN EUROPE
BELARUSIAN SOCIAL DEMOCRATS ELECT NEW LEADER AT DISPUTED CONVENTION.
The Belarusian Social Democratic Party (Popular Assembly) (BSDP-NH)
elected Anatol Lyaukovich as its chairman in
Belapan reported. The convention was reportedly overshadowed by "an
unprecedented row" following the legally challenged expulsion of the
party's former leader, Mikalay Statkevich. The Justice Ministry sided
with Statkevich's opponents and recognized his ouster as legitimate.
Lyaukovich vowed to take steps to prevent the BSDP-NH from what he
called "sliding into" autocratic rule, an accusation used by
Statkevich's opponents to oust him from the party. Lyaukovich also
promised to negotiate for the party's merger with other social
democratic forces. Statkevich refused to recognize the convention,
saying that the event had been orchestrated by the authorities. "The
BSDP-NH believes that there was an imitation rather than a [true]
convention, as the party's Central Committee had made no decision to
call the convention and the overwhelming majority of district and
city chapters had not nominated...delegates to the event," he told
Belapan. JM
BELARUSIAN OPPOSITION YOUTH GROUP ELECTS TWO LEADERS. Youth Front, an
unregistered opposition group, elected Syarhey Bakhun and Zmitser
Dashkevich as co-chairmen of the organization in
Belapan reported. At its previous convention in May, Youth Front
failed to elect a substitute for its former leader, Pavel
Sevyarynets, as the gathering split into two groups. A discussion
about the organization's strategy and tactics developed into a heated
argument between Dashkevich-led advocates of street protests and
Bakhun-led proponents of emphasis on international cooperation. The
16 January meeting decided that Bakhun will be responsible for Youth
Front's international cooperation, while Dashkevich will take charge
of organizing street protests. Meanwhile, Sevyarynets has vowed to
work toward establishing a new political party named the Christian
Democratic Party. JM
Statistics and Analysis, Belarus's gross domestic product (GDP)
increased by 11 percent year-on-year in 2004, Belapan reported on 15
January. Industrial output rose by 15.6 percent and agricultural
production by 12.9 percent. JM
UKRAINIAN SUPREME COURT MULLS LOSING PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE'S
ELECTION COMPLAINT... The Supreme Court on 17 January began examining
the appeal by presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovych against the
official results of the 26 December presidential vote awarding
victory to his rival, Viktor Yushchenko, Ukrainian and international
news agencies reported. The first day of the proceedings was devoted
to procedural and formal matters. The Supreme Court rejected numerous
motions by the Yanukovych side, including challenges against the
judges, a request to postpone the hearing, and a motion to transfer
the case to another court. By law, the Supreme Court has to make its
ruling by 21 January. If it rejects Yanukovych's appeal and rules
Yushchenko's victory legitimate, the election results announced by
the Central Election Commission last week (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 11
January 2005) must be published in official newspapers before
Yushchenko can take his oath of office. JM
...AS WINNER'S INAUGURATION EXPECTED THIS WEEK. Parliamentary
speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn told journalists in Kyiv on 17 January that
Yushchenko's inauguration as
on 21 January, Interfax reported. According to Lytvyn, everything
connected with the Verkhovna Rada's role in the inauguration ceremony
has been done. "We've already had a rehearsal, there won't be any
delays," Lytvyn said in an apparent reference to Yushchenko's mock
oath of office in parliament on 23 November (see "RFE/RL Newsline,"
24 November 2004). Meanwhile, lawmaker Mykola Tomenko from
Yushchenko's Our
for Yushchenko's inauguration would be 22 January, the Day of
EU NOT TO CHANGE ACTION PLAN FOR
not going to modify its EU-Ukraine Action Plan within the EU's New
Neighborhood Policy, "Ukrayinska pravda" reported on 18 January,
quoting European Commission spokeswoman Francoise Le Bail. Le Bail
was commenting on rumors that such a change might take place
following last week's European Parliament vote calling on the EU
authorities to give Ukraine "a clear European perspective, possibly
leading to EU membership" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 January
2005).
Meanwhile, EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson has told Reuters
that he wants to deepen trade and economic relations with
grant it market-economy status once the country has showed a
commitment to reforms. "In the short term, we are going to work fast
to finalize agreements to give
the EU market from 2005," Mandelson said. JM
SOUTHEASTERN
CROATIAN PRESIDENT REELECTED IN LANDSLIDE VOTE... Croatian President
Stipe Mesic won reelection with the backing of several center-left
parties in a 16 January runoff poll against Deputy Prime Minister
Jadranka Kosor of the governing Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ),
RFE/RL's South Slavic and Albanian Languages Service reported (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," 4 January 2005). With nearly all the votes
counted, Mesic took about 66 percent to Kosor's 34 percent.
Announcing his victory, Mesic told reporters that "Croatian democracy
has been confirmed," adding that national unity is now essential in
pursuit of Croatia's main goals of joining the EU and improving the
economy. Kosor called her own showing "respectable" in a race in
which the incumbent had always enjoyed double-digit leads in the
polls and had been widely expected to win outright in the first round
on 2 January. Mesic's first term began in 2000 and ends on 15
February. He is generally credited with ending the authoritarian and
nationalistic presidential style of his predecessor, Franjo Tudjman.
Although his office is largely symbolic, the president can exercise
great influence on foreign, defense, and security policy. Mesic is
often considered to have played a central role in
to send troops for Operation Iraqi Freedom. PM
...AS THE EU AGAIN PUTS
Commission President Jose Manuel Barosso, EU High Representative for
Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana, and EU Enlargement
Commissioner Olli Rehn told a Croatian delegation led by Prime
Minister Sanader in Brussels on 17 January that Zagreb must improve
its cooperation with the Hague-based war crimes tribunal and arrest
fugitive former General Ante Gotovina, RFE/RL's South Slavic and
Albanian Languages Service reported. The EU's current
presidency must decide soon if
with the tribunal for
for 17 March, to go ahead (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 January 2005 and
"RFE/RL Balkan Report," 24 September 2004). The Croatian government
hopes to join the Brussels-based bloc by 2009 and denies that
Gotovina is in the country. PM
HAGUE-BASED WAR CRIMES TRIBUNAL SENTENCES TWO BOSNIAN SERBS. On 17
January, judges at the Hague-based war crimes tribunal sentenced
former Bosnian Serb commander Vidoje Blagojevic to 18 years in prison
and his colleague Dragan Jokic to nine years for their respective
roles in the July 1995 massacre of up to 8,000 mainly Muslim males at
Srebrenica, international and regional media reported. The judges
said in a statement that "the horrible crimes committed following the
fall of Srebrenica are well known. These crimes were committed with a
level of brutality and depravity not previously seen in the conflict
in the former
European history." PM
FIRST INDICTEE VOLUNTARILY GOES FROM THE REPUBLIKA SRPSKA TO
HAGUE
January that Savo Todorovic, who was a commander at the Foca prison
camp from April 1992 to August 1993, recently surrendered to the
Republika Srpska authorities voluntarily and is already in
where he faces 18 separate charges filed by the war crimes tribunal,
international and regional media reported. He is the first indictee
in the Republika Srpska to go to
with the Bosnian Serb authorities, who have been criticized
repeatedly by High Representative Paddy Ashdown and several officials
of the tribunal for not having arrested a single indictee. On 17
January, Republika Srpska Interior Minister Darko Matijasevic said
that his ministry is in contact with about "80 percent" of the
families of indictees and expects that additional indictees will
"soon" follow Todorovic's example (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 3
November,
and 8, 16, and 17 December 2004, and 4 and 7 January 2005, and
"RFE/RL Balkan Report," 17 September and 22 October 2004). PM
MACEDONIAN PRESIDENT SAYS PROFESSIONAL ARMY TO BE LAUNCHED AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE. Macedonian President Branko Crvenkovski said after a
meeting of the National Security Council on 17 January that the
Macedonian Army might become a professional one as early as 2006, and
not in 2007 as was originally planned, Makfax news agency reported.
Crvenkovski also said the move will not create any security vacuum,
"Dnevnik" reported. "On the contrary, [the reform] will promote
the
efficiency and effectiveness [of the army]," Crvenkovski said. UB
KOSOVA'S UN ADMINISTRATOR LEAVES
Jessen-Petersen, who heads the UN's civilian administration in Kosova
(UNMIK), left
President Boris Tadic and Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, Reuters
reported. Jessen-Petersen hoped to obtain information about the fate
of 3,000 mainly ethnic Albanian civilians missing since the 1998-99
conflict but found that his hosts wanted to discuss only the lack of
electric power in some Serbian enclaves, an issue that
Jessen-Petersen called "politicized." The UN official also failed to
persuade Kostunica to propose a date for the resumption of a
Belgrade-Prishtina dialogue. Jessen-Petersen noted that he will soon
propose a date himself. Rivals Tadic and Kostunica are each seeking
to exploit the Kosova issue for political advantage (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 22 December 2004 and 11 January 2005, and "RFE/RL Balkan
Report," 19 December 2004, and 13 August, 8 October, and 17 December
2004, and 7 January 2005). PM
...AS A SCANDAL UNFOLDS. Serbian Interior Ministry Inspector-General
"in two months" he hopes to have results from an investigation into
charges by human rights activist Natasa Kandic and the
hundreds of murdered Kosovar Albanians in Mackatica in May 1999. The
NGO noted in a recent document that unnamed officials of the Security
Information Agency (BIA) have already begun intimidating and
"organizing acts of terror" against witnesses to the alleged
burnings, RFE/RL's South Slavic and Albanian Languages Service
reported. PM
NATO COMMANDER SAYS REDEPLOYMENT TO ROMANIAN, BULGARIAN BASES COULD
START THIS YEAR. Supreme Allied Commander Europe General James Jones
said on 14 January in
moving from
this year, AP reported. Jones spoke with journalists after his recent
visits to the two countries. He said the
up to five facilities in each of the two states. Jones said in an
interview on 17 January with the Bulgarian daily "Trud" that the
first contingent of
Europe to
involving Bulgarian, Romanian, and
ROMANIA APPROVES SENDING MORE TROOPS TO
Basescu on 17 January approved the deployment of 100 more Romanian
troops to
elections in that country, Mediafax and Reuters reported. Basescu
approved the deployment at the request of the country's Supreme
Defense Council, but the government has yet to approve the
deployment. A 1,500-strong Romanian military contingent is already
serving in that country. MS
ROMANIAN PREMIER VISITS HUNGARY. On his first official visit abroad,
Prime Minister Calin Popescu-Tariceanu agreed with his Hungarian
counterpart Ferenc Gyurcsany in Budapest on 17 January that their
cabinets are to meet annually to discuss political and environmental
problems, Mediafax and international news agencies reported.
Popescu-Tariceanu said after the talks that the sides must "leave
behind the stage" when relations were "dominated by [ethnic]-minority
issues." Gyurcsany said the planned long-stay visas in Hungary would
not be granted on ethnicity, but on the basis of "nationality," and
any citizen of neighboring countries planning to stay in Hungary for
extended periods would be eligible to apply. Popescu-Tariceanu said
the uproar created by the screening of a documentary about the 1920
Trianon Treaty was "out of place," as was the initiative of the
documentary's authors to screen it in Romania. He and Gyurcsany also
agreed that Romania must respect European environmental standards in
making a decision about the controversial Rosia-Montana gold- mining
project (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 October 2004 and 10 and 11 January
2005). MS
ROMANIAN PRESIDENT ASKS COURT TO NULLIFY MINERS' PARDON. President
Basescu and the Romanian government on 14 January asked the Bucharest
Court of Appeals to nullify the pardon granted by former President
Ion Iliescu to miners' leader Miron Cozma, Mediafax and AP reported.
Iliescu revoked the pardon after protests from politicians and civil
society representatives and Cozma was reimprisoned. The president's
office and the government said the pardon was granted for political
reasons and was in breach of the constitution. They also said the
pardon violated the rights and freedoms of the victims of the miners'
1990, 1991, and 1999 rampages and undermined justice (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 20 and 21 December 2004). The former president described
the request as "political harassment." Meanwhile, the opposition
Social Democratic Party (PSD) said on 14 January that it does not
rule out initiating legal proceedings to "suspend" Basescu from
office. The PSD said Basescu was behind a decision made last week by
Democratic Party members to revoke the election of former Prime
Ministers Adrian Nastase and Nicolae Vacaroiu as speakers of the two
chambers of parliament. MS
COUNCIL OF EUROPE SECRETARY-GENERAL ENDS MOLDOVA VISIT. Council of
Europe Secretary-General Terry Davis on 17 January ended a three-day
visit to Moldova, Infotag reported. During the visit, Davis met with
President Vladimir Voronin, Foreign Minister Andrei Stratan, and
leaders of opposition parties. Davis told journalists in Chisinau
that the council will follow closely the 6 March parliamentary
elections in Moldova and that it is highly important for Moldova to
demonstrate that the ballot is free and democratic. Flux cited Davis
as warning against harassment of the opposition by police ahead of
the elections. On 16 January, Davis said on Moldovan Television that
a "Ukraine-like scenario" need not and should not be replayed in
Moldova. He said the situation in Moldova is totally different and,
while elections always produce losers who resent their defeat, fair
and free elections result in the democratic choice being acknowledged
by those who lose. MS
MOLDOVA CURBS FOREIGN VISITS TO SEPARATIST REGION. In a note sent to
foreign embassies in Chisinau, the Moldovan Foreign Ministry
announced on 14 January that diplomats and representatives of foreign
organizations in Moldova will have to receive permission from the
ministry in order to visit the separatist Transdniester region in the
future, Infotag reported. The ministry said the move was due to the
"destabilizing actions" of the Tiraspol leadership. The pro-Russian
Patria-Rodina opposition block described the measure as aimed at
undermining Russia's role as a mediator in the conflict. MS
END NOTE
THREE CHALLENGES FOR THE CRIMEAN TATARS
By Paul Goble
The Crimean Tatars overwhelmingly backed the "Orange
Revolution" in Ukraine, but in the wake of that victory, they face
three challenges to their national aspirations: first, the
probability of increased Russian meddling on the peninsula, second,
the likelihood of growing Islamic fundamentalism there, and third,
the possibility of declining support by Western governments that now
have a government in Kyiv they like.
The Crimean Tatars face increased Russian meddling in Crimea,
some of it by the local Russian community but much of it clearly
orchestrated by Moscow. Ethnic Russians -- who constitute the
majority of the peninsula's population -- voted overwhelmingly
against Viktor Yushchenko.
Some of the more extreme ethnic Russian opponents of the
Orange Revolution there organized themselves as Cossack detachments
to defend against what they said were Crimean Tatar threats,
according to religare.ru, and others urged a vote to put Crimea under
Russian control, mignews.com reported.
Even though the Ukrainian presidential election is now over
and tempers may have cooled somewhat, Moscow's interests in
maintaining its naval base there and in continuing to use Crimea as a
counterweight to Kyiv make it likely that Russia will attempt to
exacerbate problems there, a development that is likely to hurt
rather than help the Crimean Tatars.
One reason for that conclusion involves the second challenge
the Crimean Tatars now face, the growth of Islamic fundamentalism
there and the ways in which the Russian authorities are seeking to
exploit it through their media coverage of this trend.
The Crimean Tatars historically practice a very moderate form
of Islam, but in the 1990s both domestic and foreign factors played a
role in the appearance there of Wahhabism, and more recently
followers of Hizb ut-Tahrir (See the abstract of the paper by Ernst
Koudousov, "Wahhabism In The Crimea" at
http://www.isorecea.org/abstracts.php
and an article by Ya. Amelina
at http://www.olmer2.newmail.ru/45_19.htm).
Extreme poverty and a
sense of hopelessness among many Crimean Tatars have contributed to
the growing popularity of radical Islam, but so too have the
activities of Muslim missionaries from the Arab world and Central
Asia and of both the Russian and the Ukrainian governments, who at
various points have shown themselves interested in splitting the
Crimean Tatar national movement.
The number of Crimean Tatars involved in these two movements
nonetheless remains very small -- no more than 300 Wahhabis and far
fewer adepts of Hizb ut-Tahrir are to be found in Crimea -- and most
of their leaders currently appear more interested in religious
questions than in political action.
But their very existence, the intensive coverage they have
received, and the possibility that these groups could threaten or
somehow be used to threaten the Crimean Tatar movement have combined
to prompt the Crimean Tatar leadership to distance itself from these
groups and seek to limit their activities.
Mustafa Dzhemilev, the leader of the Crimean Tatars, has
repeatedly said that his people have been grateful for almost any
outside help they could get, but that they have discovered that some
of it from the Middle East either came with strings attached or
threatened to divide his people and therefore had to be rejected.
As a result, up to now, the impact of fundamentalist Islam in
Crimea has been extremely limited, but Russian authors are
increasingly playing up this threat both to frighten Kyiv and the
West and possibly to justify continuing Russian involvement there.
One article in the Russian-language "Novyi Region-Krym"
suggested that Crimea is following "the Kosovo scenario," a reference
seconded by "Spetsnaz Rossii" and one more likely to have an impact
on Western audiences than on a Ukrainian one.
And another article suggested by indirection how many in
Moscow view the Crimean Tatar movement
(http://www.edinenie.kiev.ua/Actual19/za/mina.htm).
It warned that
the new government in Kyiv should beware of trying to use the Crimean
Tatars as a counterweight to Russian influence on the peninsula lest
it embed a threat to its own existence.
There is also a third challenge confronting the Crimean Tatar
movement, one with a precedent in this part of the world but not one
that the Crimean Tatars have had to deal with before -- the
possibility that Western governments will be less inclined to support
the Crimean Tatars -- and may even actively oppose them -- now that
there is a pro-Western government in Kyiv.
"Now that the West considers Yushchenko to be the champion of
Ukrainian reform," Nadir Bekir, a member of the Crimean Tatar
assembly, asked a European election monitor rhetorically
(http://www.cafebabel.com/en/printversion.asp?T=T&ID=2969),
"who will
listen should he carry on the same policy of discrimination toward
the Tatars?"
Indeed, Bekir suggested, many Western governments may now say
to the Crimean Tatars something akin to what they said to the
Ukrainians in Mikhail Gorbachev's time: "At least it's Yushchenko
that you have now!" And the West will likely do so, he said, even if
the new Ukrainian government does little or nothing to help the
Crimean Tatars.
Should any such shift in policy happen -- and reports about
the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in Crimea could certainly be used
to justify it -- that by itself might lead to a further growth in
Islamic fundamentalism there. And that, in turn, could of course make
the Crimea a new international flashpoint, a development that would
threaten everyone involved.
(Paul Goble, former publisher of "RFE/RL Newsline" and a
longtime Soviet nationalities expert with the U.S. government, is
currently a research associate at the EuroCollege of the University
of Tartu in Estonia.)
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