Thinking about Predictors of Radicalization to Violence
Individuals Undergoing Life Difficulties - Southern Illinois Findings
Dr. Suranjan Weeraratne (sweerar@siue.edu) and Dr. Laurie L. Rice (larice@siue.edu)
A recent report published by the National Threat Assessment Center (NTAC) of the United States Secret Service titled “Mass Attacks in Public Spaces: 2016-2020” revealed that many attackers of mass violence had experienced stressful events across a variety of life domains in the five years prior to the attack. Specifically, 51% of attackers (out of a total sample of 180) experienced challenges with family life, 32% experienced employment related challenges and nearly 20% had issues with social interactions including being bullied in school or at work.
Thus, the NTAC report makes it clear that life stressors could be a significant predictor of extremism. Indeed, results of representative surveys we fielded in 41 counties in Southern Illinois via Lucid between April and June 2023 (n=750) show that individuals undergoing life challenges are significantly more likely to support threats and violence to achieve various political goals.
Survey data revealed that nearly 25% of Southern Illinois adults had been at least sometimes bullied (both in-person and virtually) over the last three years. This is significantly higher than the percentage who report being bullied in the last three years nationally. As the frequency of getting bullied increased, so too did their support for various forms of threats and violence. For example, out of those that were never bullied in-person over the last three years in Southern Illinois, only around 10% expressed support for threats and violence. In contrast, close to 40% (and in some cases, over 40%) of respondents who had been bullied regularly or very often, expressed support for threats and violence. Findings are similar for those bullied virtually. These results underscore the need to focus more extensively on preventing adult bullying and the necessity to provide more specialized resources to support individuals who have experienced it.
In our surveys, we also asked respondents about several other life challenges they may have faced. The findings are clear. There is a strong positive correlation between the frequency of life difficulties and the proclivity for support for threats and violence. Those frequently experiencing recent difficulties with life goals, family relationships and romantic relationships are two to three times more likely to support violence compared to those that have not experienced such challenges recently. The effect is even greater in terms of community exclusion; those frequently facing such exclusion are up to four times more likely to express support for threats and violence. Individuals grappling with life stressors could support political extremism through different causal pathways. These include lashing out due to anger or frustration, feeling a need to restore lost control or seeking outlets to transfer blame onto other groups. Irrespective of the causal mechanism, the implications of these findings are clear. State and local officials and communities must pay more attention and direct more resources to help individuals struggling with a variety of life difficulties.
The research presented here is part of a larger project funded by the Department of Homeland Security’s Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships (opportunity number DHS-22-TTP-132-00-01). Analysis and opinions are those of the authors.