Southern Illinois Findings
Understanding the Current Threat Environment:
Estimating Community Prevalence of Extremism and Support for Threats and Violence
In a survey of Southern Illinois adults conducted via Lucid (N=750) between April and June 2023, we asked respondents to estimate the prevalence of various forms of extremism and hate in their communities, which we defined for respondents as the county in which they lived. Most Southern Illinoisans express an awareness of these attitudes existing in their communities with mean levels falling between slightly and somewhat present.
Meanwhile, fewer than 10 percent of respondents noted that these attitudes were extremely present in their community while 10 to 15 percent said these attitudes were quite present. Respondents also note the existence of significant distrust of government in their communities, with the mean level reported ranging between minor and moderate distrust. Mean levels of distrust were the highest for the national government and state government. Similarly, the percentages indicating moderate and strong distrust in their community are highest for national and state government. While there was also lower mean distrust of law enforcement reported than that of other entities, the results show that efforts to build trust with communities may be helpful.
Many people may hold extremist attitudes, hate-filled ideologies, or significant distrust of government without radicalizing to violence. How prevalent, then, are individuals’ levels of support for threats and violence?
While a plurality of Southern Illinoisans strongly disagree that threats are justifiable against elected officials, against politicians who do something with which you disagree, and against members of the opposite political party, about 15 percent of those surveyed agreed or strongly agreed that such threats are justifiable and nearly a quarter were neutral about whether threats were justifiable. Meanwhile, nearly a quarter of Americans said nonviolent misdemeanors were justifiable to achieve political objectives and 16.5 percent said felonies were justifiable to achieve political objectives. Similar percentages believe violence is justifiable.
Between 36 – 43 percent of those surveyed strongly disagreed that violence was justifiable if the other party wins the next presidential election or to achieve ideological or partisan objectives, but less than 30 percent strongly disagree that violence is justifiable if elected officials fail to protect the interests of Americans. Meanwhile, about 15 percent agreed or strongly agreed that violence was justifiable if the other party wins the next presidential election or to achieve ideological or partisan objectives. This number nearly doubles if elected officials fail to protect the interests of Americans. Meanwhile, around 25 percent of respondents neither agreed nor disagreed that violence was justifiable in these instances. In sum, survey data echoes the need for heightened awareness among law enforcement, as attitudinal measures suggest nontrivial numbers of Americans may be open to radicalization to violence. This underscores the importance of investing in prevention efforts.
The research presented here is part of a larger project funded by the Department of Homeland Security’s Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships (opportunity number DHS-22-TTP-132-00-01). Analysis and opinions are those of the authors.
All percentages are calculated with survey weights.