Statistics 484

Industrial Engineering 463

Reliability

Engineering

Fall

2000

Time and Location: 6:00 - 7:15 TR; PH 0304

Instructor: Steven E. Rigdon, SL1314, (618) 650-2193, srigdon@siue.edu

Office Hours: 1:30-2:00 & 3:30-4:30 M; 5:00-5:30 T; 1:30-2:00 W; 5:00-5:30 R; 1:30-2:00 F

Prerequisite: STAT 380 or equivalent

Textbook: Reliability: Probabilistic Models and Statistical Methods, by Lawrence M. Leemis, New York: Prentice Hall

 

Grading Scheme:

 

Best 2 of 3 50-point exams @50

100

 

Homework 6-8 assignments @10 (drop lowest)

50-70

 

Student Project

40

 

Final Exam

90-110

 

TOTAL

300

 

Course Outline:

 

 

TUESDAY

THURSDAY

1

August

22 (Chapter 1)

Introduction

Definitions of reliability - Case Study 1 Challenger - Overview of course 

24 (Chapter 2)

Coherent Systems Analysis

Structure Functions - Minimal path and cut sets

2

August

29 (Chapter 2)

Coherent Systems Analysis

Reliability functions - computing reliability from structure function

31 (Other References)

Coherent Systems Analysis

Fault trees - Failure mode effects analysis (FMEA)

3

September

5 (Chapter 2)

Coherent Systems Analysis

Bounds on system reliability

 7 (Chapter 2)

Coherent Systems Analysis

Case Study 2 Nuclear Reactors - Review

4

September

12 (Chapter 2)

E X A M #1

Covers Chapters 1 and 2, plus fault trees and FMEA

13 (Chapter 3)

Lifetime Distributions

Review continuous random variables, pdf, cdf, moments.

5

September

19 (Chapter 3)

Lifetime Distributions

Discrete distributions - moments and fractiles

21 (Chapter 3)

Lifetime Distributions

Hazard function - Work problems

6

September

26 (Chapter 4)

Parametric Lifetime Models

Exponential distribution

28 (Chapter 4)

Parametric Lifetime Models

Weibull distribution - Gamma distribution

7

October

3 (Chapter 4)

Parametric Lifetime Models

Other distributions - Work problems

5 (Chapter 4)

Parametric Lifetime Models

Work problems - review

8

October

10 (Chapter 4)

E X A M # 2

Covers Chapters 3 & 4

12 (Chapter 7)

Lifetime Data Analysis

Review point estimation - Maximum likelihood estimation

9

October

17 (Chapter 7)

Lifetime Data Analysis

Interval estimation - likelihood theory

17 (Chapter 7)

Lifetime Data Analysis

Asymptotic properties

10

October

24 (Chapter 7)

Lifetime Data Analysis

Censoring - exponential distribution

26 (Chapter 7)

Lifetime Data Analysis

Censoring - Weibull distribution

11

October/

November

31 (Other References)

Lifetime Data Analysis

MIL STD 781 and other standards

2 Other References

Lifetime Data Analysis

MIL STD 781 and other standards

12

November

7 (Chapter 6)

Repairable Systems

Point processes - Poisson process

9 (Chapter 6)

Repairable Systems

Nonhomogeneous Poisson process - power law process

13

November

14 (Chapter 6 and other sources)

Repairable Systems

Estimating parameters of power law process

16 (Chapter 6 and other sources)

Repairable Systems

E X A M # 3

Covers Chapters 6 & 7

14

November

28

Repairable Systems

Birth and death processes

Student Presentations

30

Repairable Systems

Availability

Student Presentations

15

December

5

Review

Student Presentations

7

Review

Student Presentations

 

December

 12

6:30-8:10

 

 

 Possible Topics for Student Reports:

Nonparametric goodness-of-fit tests

The power law model for repairable systems

Distribution classes (e.g., increasing failure rate, new-better-than-used, etc.)

Mixture distributions

Competing risks

Accelerated life tests

Proportional hazards models

 

Criteria for Grading Homework and Reports:

Correctness and Completeness

Response is complete and correct. Arguments are valid and reasoning is correct. All statements are unambiguous and correct.

/6

Organization and Development

Structure of report is well thought out and organized according to the appropriate style. Uses supporting elements (Figures, Tables, Mathematica code, etc.) that are accurate and appropriate. Conclusions are prominent and follow from students reasoning.

/2

Writing Style and Presentation

Report uses appropriate words. Paragraphs flow smoothly. Report shows mastery of punctuation, capitalization, and spelling. Presentation of mathematics follows established conventions.

/2

TOTAL

/10

 

On-Line Materials

The syllabus and homework assignments can be found at http://www.siue.edu/~srigdon/ S484SyllabusF00.html and http://www.siue.edu/~srigdon/S484HWF00.html or from the links at http://www.siue.edu/~srigdon.