629 ACUS1 KMKC 190059 SWODY1 MKC AC 190055 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 190100Z - 191200Z REF WEATHER_WATCH 0590...VALID TIL 0400Z REF WEATHER_WATCH 0591...VALID TIL 0400Z THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE LAA AKRON,_CO 45 WEST SIDNEY,_NE 30 SOUTHWEST SCOTTSBLUFF,_NE 25 NORTH SCOTTSBLUFF,_NE ALLIANCE,_NE 30 NORTHWEST NORTH_PLATTE,_NE 15 ENE MCCOOK,_NE HILL_CITY,_KS DODGE_CITY,_KS 30 NORTH-NORTHWEST LIBERAL,_KS 25 SSE LAA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE LITTLE_ROCK,_AR 30 WEST-SOUTHWEST WEST_PLAINS,_MO 40 WEST FORT_LEONARD_WOOD,_MO 35 NORTHWEST COLUMBIA,_MO 45 WEST-SOUTHWEST QUINCY,_IL QUINCY,_IL SPRINGFIELD,_IL 35 SOUTHWEST TERRE_HAUTE,_IN 20 WEST-SOUTHWEST EVANSVILLE,_IN 30 WEST-SOUTHWEST FORT_CAMPBELL,_KY 40 S JACKSON,_TN 50 ENE LITTLE_ROCK,_AR. GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NE MINOT,_ND ROSEGLEN,_ND DICKINSON,_ND 20 EAST REDIG,_SD 35 SOUTHWEST PHILIP,_SD GRAND_ISLAND,_NE 25 NORTH-NORTHEAST OTTUMWA,_IA 15 NE PEORIA,_IL 10 ENE DANVILLE,_IL DAY 20 NORTH PARKERSBURG,_WV MORGANTOWN,_WV ELKINS,_WV WHITE_SULPHUR_SPRINGS,_WV BLUEFIELD,_WV 40 EAST CHATTANOOGA,_TN 20 ENE MERIDIAN,_MS 25 EAST GULFPORT,_MS ...CONTINUE... 10 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTRACOASTAL_CITY,_LA ONROE,_LA PINE_BLUFF,_AR SPRINGFIELD,_MO 20 NORTH-NORTHEAST CHANUTE,_KS 25 S WICHITA,_KS GAGE,_OK 40 EAST AMARILLO,_TX CANNON_AFB,_NM EL_PASO,_TX ...CONTINUE... 50 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TUSCON,_AZ 20 NORTHWEST SAD 20 WNW CUBA,_NM ALAMOSA,_CO FRASER,_CO CHEYENNE,_WY CASPER,_WY 50 EAST RIVERTON,_WY 40 NORTH-NORTHWEST ROCK_SPRINGS,_WY 45 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BIG_PINEY,_WY 20 WEST-SOUTHWEST EVANSTON,_WY DUGWAY,_UT 25 WEST WENDOVER,_UT 35 S TWIN_FALLS,_ID 45 NORTH-NORTHEAST KLAMATH_FALLS,_OR 60 SOUTHEAST EUGENE,_OR 40 EAST SALEM,_OR 15 NE THE_DALLES,_OR WALLA_WALLA,_WA 40 NORTH GRANGEVILLE,_ID THOMPSON_FALLS,_MT 55 WNW CUT_BANK,_MT. GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEW_BEDFORD,_MA 30 EAST-SOUTHEAST MOUNT_WASHINGTON,_NH 30 NORTH BANGOR,_ME 25 NORTH-NORTHEAST CARIBOU,_ME. GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SOUTHEAST TALAHASSEE,_FL 35 WEST-SOUTHWEST JACKSONVILLE,_FL 45 NORTHWEST DAYTONA_BEACH,_FL 20 SOUTHWEST ORLANDO,_FL 15 S FORT_MEYERS,_FL. ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION... ...MO/IL... STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOCATED CLOSE THE SAINT_LOUIS,_MO. VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW VERY STRONG...BUT LOCALIZED SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH 50 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS. THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION OF STORMS IS RESULTING IN 0-3 KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2. STORMS ARE LOCATED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO ENID,_OK BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES FROM THE MIXED LAYER AND CONSEQUENTLY DECREASES THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO THE STORMS. REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH #591. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... DESPITE A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PALMER DIVIDE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE AND HAVE MOVED EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF CO. THE FLOW IS VERY WEAK IN THE LOWER 3 KM...BUT THE DRY AIR ALOFT APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SUFFICIENT OUTFLOW TO SUPPORT CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AT 30-40 KNOT IS RESULTING IN 30-35 KNOT SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM...AIDING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. EVEN THOUGH STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...THE UPDRAFT ROOTS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ELEVATED AND WITH WEAK INFLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY...STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY WEAKEN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BY 06Z. ...NORTHEASTERN AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN KY... DESPITE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CLOUD COVER EARLIER TODAY INHIBITED STRONG INSOLATION AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THUS FARGO,_ND. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS LOCATED NEAR SAINT_LOUIS,_MO AND AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. ..IMY.. 07/18/00