369 
ACUS11 KWNS 041906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041904
ILZ000-042100-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011 FOR N CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

POTENTIAL FOR NEW INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASING SEVERE THREAT IS BEING MONITORED.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH/WEST OF THE CHICAGO AREA HAS BEEN FOCUS FOR
INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS...WITH
NEWEST ACTIVITY OCCURRING NEAR INTERSECTION WITH WEAK SURFACE FRONT
IN THE VICINITY OF BURLINGTON IA.  DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S JUST
SOUTH OF OUTFLOW ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000
J/KG.  REGIONAL VAD WIND DATA SUGGEST MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW/
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ENHANCED BY
50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW STILL EVIDENT AT DAVENPORT IA.  LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE NEXT
FEW HOURS NEAR PEORIA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...AS WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS.  THIS MAY
SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF NEW CLUSTER OF STORMS...ALONG WITH INCREASING
THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 

..KERR.. 06/04/02

PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...